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Looking to the GOP race, I'd give a slight edge to McCain at the moment, but things are still changing very quickly.  Maybe Giuliani's strategy of ignoring Iowa and New Hampshire will still pay dividends.  Romney put all his eggs in those baskets, and it could be backfiring.  If I were Romney's handler back when he started his campaign, I'd have advised him not to change his positions and to campaign as the moderate-to-liberal Republican that won him the governorship of Massachusetts.  The country has clearly shifted to the left since 2000 (and even 2004), and so shifting to the right was clearly short-sighted on Romney's part.  I'm sure he did it because he didn't think he could win the Republican nomination without appealing to the far right, but I think that Huckabee's early popularity running a populist campaign has shown the fallacy in that thinking.  Romney is right that he wouldn't have done well in the South running as a centrist, but he wasn't going to do well in the South, anyway. 
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You may yet be right about Obama, Citizen.  The latest tracker poll came out, putting him 10 points ahead of Clinton, up from tied the day before:

http://weblogs.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/blog/2008/01/obama_at_39_mccain_at_32_in_ne.html

On the GOP side, Huckabee is now at 14%, with Giuliani at 11% and Paul at 10%.  Independent voters seem more interested in the GOP race (probably because it's more up gor grabs).  I'm still predicting more total votes in the Democratic primary.  These tracker polls can be notoriously volatile (the sample sizes are around 300), so it will be interesting to see what tomorrow's poll shows, and, of course, what Tuesday brings.  If Edwards finishes a distant third, he's done, probably before he makes it to South Carolina.  If Clinton loses by 10 percentage points, expect some major housecleaning on Wednesday, after which time it's gloves off.  There's still time, though.  The more independents vote in the GOP primary, the closer the Democratic race will be.



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Don't go to Vegas or the track with KP based on his interpretations of polls and pols.
Not even a primary, just One caucus and he's ready to call the race?
The only thing that's definite at this point is that it's going to be a long painful time between February and November.
"It is a wreave belief that we already are in Hell."- Tuluk in Frank Herbert's "Whipping Star"
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Thank you, watcher, couldn't have said it better.
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I'm already very tired of Obama.  What has he actually done as a U.S. Senator?  Except tout his book, and run for president.......
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Originally posted by watcher watcher wrote:

Don't go to Vegas or the track with KP based on his interpretations of polls and pols.
Not even a primary, just One caucus and he's ready to call the race?
The only thing that's definite at this point is that it's going to be a long painful time between February and November.


I'm not ready to call either race.  That said, if Clinton wins tomorrow, then I will call the nomination for her, as Obama will lose momentum and Clinton will regain center stage.  If Obama wins, then the Democratic race may not be decided until February 5. 

If Romney loses, his campaign is in trouble, and McCain becomes the frontrunner.  However, that race probably won't be decided until February.  The GOP is in relative disarray, and so there the voting actually means something.

What's wrong with calling a race so early?  Let's face it, had Clinton won Iowa, she'd have coasted to the nomination, since the party bosses would have demanded unity and placed pressure on the other candidates to back off.  Also,  the exit polls in 2000 in Florida were more accurate than the final vote.  The problem wasn't the Voter News Service.   It was with the voting.  Also, it isn't as if Illinois will have any impact on either primary, or in November.  We'll vote for whomever the Democratic nominee is, and there will hardly be any campaigning here (perhaps just a little on the GOP side for the primary, but mostly in GOP strongholds, of which Cook County certainly isn't).  We might as well just spend our energy watching from the sidelines.


Edited by KPO'M - 07/January/2008 at 8:55am
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Originally posted by KPO'M KPO'M wrote:



I'm not ready to call either race. That said, if Clinton wins tomorrow, then I will call the nomination for her, as Obama will lose momentum and Clinton will regain center stage. If Obama wins, then the Democratic race may not be decided until February 5. If Romney loses, his campaign is in trouble, and McCain becomes the frontrunner. However, that race probably won't be decided until February. The GOP is in relative disarray, and so there the voting actually means something.What's wrong with calling a race so early? Let's face it, had Clinton won Iowa, she'd have coasted to the nomination, since the
party bosses would have demanded unity and placed pressure on the other
candidates to back off. Also, the exit polls in 2000 in Florida were more accurate than the final vote. The problem wasn't the Voter News Service.   It was with the voting. Also, it isn't as if Illinois will have any impact on either primary, or in November. We'll vote for whomever the Democratic nominee is, and there will hardly be any campaigning here (perhaps just a little on the GOP side for the primary, but mostly in GOP strongholds, of which Cook County certainly isn't). We might as well just spend our energy watching from the sidelines.


Sure sounds like you're ready. What is wrong with such an early lock on the nomination is manifold. It has become such a caustic, divisive, toxic process that by November, only the kool-aiders are likely to bother voting. As we're seeing with each successive cycle, -which come with increasingly dizzying frequency- little is actually accomplished in a workmanlike fashion by the elected. We get staff produced boilerplate legislation that is wishy-washy at best, laden with flotsam and jetsam, and hopelessly incomprehensible.

Reflective of our collective A.D.D. or the cause of it? Slap it together, stick a label on it and ship it with a no-return policy.
What is being served is inedible. That's okay, here's some more. Choke on it.

If this is to be the process, we hardly need full-time legislators. A system akin to jury-duty would produce better results.
"It is a wreave belief that we already are in Hell."- Tuluk in Frank Herbert's "Whipping Star"
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Originally posted by piehead piehead wrote:

I'm already very tired of Obama.  What has he actually done as a U.S. Senator?  Except tout his book, and run for president.......
 
it's the process! we're all sick of all of it/them.
except, i guess, for the the folks that get paid to talk/write about the sick process ad nauseum. can't see as it serves anyone else.


Edited by citizen - 07/January/2008 at 9:53am
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Originally posted by watcher watcher wrote:

Don't go to Vegas or the track with KP based on his interpretations of polls and pols.
Not even a primary, just One caucus and he's ready to call the race?
The only thing that's definite at this point is that it's going to be a long painful time between February and November.


If you don't trust my intuition, consider the views of the online traders.  They are currently favoring Obama for the nomination, and 90% to win tomorrow.  These people have real money on the line, and the futures market tends to be very accurate.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAsdGLltkeKo&refer=home

The market's at 32 for Clinton and 65 for Obama to be the nominee.  McCain's leading Giuliani 36 to 30.   The actual market is at www.intrade.com

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Riiiiight, traders never lose money. They are always right. Omniscient. YAWN..................

Edited by videoguy - 07/January/2008 at 2:59pm
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Originally posted by videoguy videoguy wrote:

Riiiiight, traders never lose money. They are always right. Omniscient. YAWN..................


Traders do lose money, but the bottom line is that the traders' market tends to be more accurate than most opinion polls because it reflects the collective opinion of people with a vested interest in the results of an election.  Anyone can participate in a normal poll and give a frivolous answer (particularly if they don't intend to vote), which always throws off standard polls a bit.  People are less likely to give frivolous results with money on the line.
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Originally posted by KPO'M KPO'M wrote:

Originally posted by watcher watcher wrote:

Don't go to Vegas or the track with KP based on his interpretations of polls and pols.
Not even a primary, just One caucus and he's ready to call the race?
The only thing that's definite at this point is that it's going to be a long painful time between February and November.


If you don't trust my intuition, consider the views of the online traders.  They are currently favoring Obama for the nomination, and 90% to win tomorrow.  These people have real money on the line, and the futures market tends to be very accurate.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAsdGLltkeKo&refer=home

The market's at 32 for Clinton and 65 for Obama to be the nominee.  McCain's leading Giuliani 36 to 30.   The actual market is at www.intrade.com

 
interesting, kp. money talks...
my ex is always sending me stuff from bloomberg (yeah, trader :)
 
another thought.
obama is 46 years old. and many folks think that's too young to be president.
i think 46 is pretty prime for career highs, certainly execs. eh?
 
 
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Originally posted by citizen citizen wrote:

interesting, kp. money talks...
my ex is always sending me stuff from bloomberg (yeah, trader :)
 
another thought.
obama is 46 years old. and many folks think that's too young to be president.
i think 46 is pretty prime for career highs, certainly execs. eh?
 


46 is prime age for a CEO.  JFK was 46 when he was assassinated (43 when he was elected).  Teddy Roosevelt was 42 when he ascended to the Presidency.  Al Gore was 39 when he ran the first time in 1988.  Obama's certainly old enough to be President.  It would be very interesting if we wound up with Obama vs. McCain. 

Anyway, it sounds like Clinton is hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.  It's been an odd turn of events in the last two days.  Now all the polls are pointing to an Obama victory when just 3 days ago, they were pointing to ties, and as recently as yesterday they were split.  It's too bad our mayoral race didn't turn out that way.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7779.html

Anyway, according to the article, the nastiness is going to ramp up Wednesday.  She might  be taking a page out of the Blagojevich playbook.  Say what you will about the governor, but he's a textbook case on how to cakewalk to election despite widespread unpopularity.  Obama's no Topinka, though.

We'll know by this time tomorrow how New Hampshire went for all the candidates.  It will probably come down to how the Independents vote.  If they show up for the Democrats in larger-than-expected numbers, then Obama wins big, while McCain ekes out a small win against Romney (prolonging both campaigns).  If they show up for the GOP, then McCain wins by a wide margin, while Clinton and Obama likely finish in a tight race (perhaps even dead heat). 

We'll see what it does to the polls for the February 5 races.  I still think Clinton's a bit oversold at the moment.  Remember that McCain beat W in 2000 by 18 points in New Hampshire.  Bush went on to get the nomination, and even win New Hampshire in the general election by a small, but ultimately crucial margin.  Clinton might wind up resorting to Giuliani's strategy for the primary by default, but I still can't see betting against her.  Remember. Obama has to deal with the Rezko factor.  Unless the Democratic establishment gets comfortable that nothing will emerge from the Rezko trial against Obama, I can't see them rallying behind him.


Edited by KPO'M - 07/January/2008 at 11:33pm
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Obama & Romney - in all likeliness - even as unlikable as ol' Mit is. Never Hillary. Her seams are showing. Traders - they have a financial interest and they bet like vegas. It's going to be a stressful few more months. I think Hillary is goin' down - I hope. Never have liked her. I'm tired of slippery insiders. McCain is a fighter - Obama is fresh blood. Edwards is an interesting variable. Did he bring down the last election or was it Kerry?

Isn't everyone tired of the Republican's playing the "National Security" card and the "let's build a fence to keep those "people out" where do we live? Berlin before the wall came down?

I'm not holding my breath at this point - Hell, the only democrat on the Michigan ballot is Hillary - I hang my head in shame at the state of Michigan, my former home state. What has it become?

How've you all been?
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hi cd! thanks for asking - never been better, life is a bowl of cherries :)
 
tonight will be interesting, eh?
something special in the air? feels wonderfully grassrootsy.
whenever new, apathet*c, discouraged voters come out, it's a fine thing. sounds like a significant turnout in NH today.
 
i like hearing us, fp locals, kick around national/international issues. more compelling than listening to des moines locals :) and we know apathet*c & discouraged well!
 
what are the voters really saying w/their votes? that's the fun stuff.
 
interesting angle on obama from libertarian/conservative, andrew sullivan.
 
 
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Early returns (as of 7:45PM) indicate a win for McCain, and a photo finish for the Democrats.  Edwards is toast.  Clinton may yet be the the Comeback Kid 2.
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It looks like it's Hillary.  Even if Obama pulls it out, Hillary is doing a lot better than expected.  Too bad I didn't buy the Clinton options yesterday at 26.  They're at 50 now.  Looks like the crying episode did the trick.  Anyway, so now we know the Democratic nominee.  The main question seems to be whether it's McCain for the GOP, or whether Giuliani's strategy of waiting until February 5 will work.  Bloomberg may yet enter this race.

Edited by KPO'M - 08/January/2008 at 8:02pm
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Obama is OK, but he is no saint. He lies about his Muslim education, among other things. What has he done for Illinois, in his REAL job? Nothing that I know of, I only see Dick Durbin on the news. That is why I dont like Obama. He has very little experience and yet being a US Senator is not good enough for him. He wants a promotion without paying his dues.

Hillary I feel sorry for. As a woman, if she shows emotion, people will say she is emotional and weak. But if she is tough, people say she is a bitch and cold blooded.

Hillary has my vote. She is definitely a Democratic Party insider, but so what? She knows how the system works, being there for 8 years. She knows the players. She knows how to get things done (she learned a lot from the health care debacle). Bill Clinton was the best President we have had in 50 years and Hillary will do a lot of the same things Bill did (except have sex with an intern): Balance the budget, stay out of wars (wherever possible), fully fund Social Security and Medicare, and, hopefully, institute some kind of national health plan for all Americans, regardless of income or sex or family size or lack of children. The only thing people can find to say bad about Hillary is that she is a "bitch", as I explained above, is stupid. Bill cannot be faulted for anything except his affairs, which I dont think are important. Thats between him and Hillary. Things were a lot better when he was in office. The Republicans? I dont give a damn who they run, they all suck and any working person who votes Republican is a brain washed moron.
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VG, the emotion might be what put Clinton over the top.  Also, you have selective memory about Bill.  No president has fully funded Social Security or Medicare in years.  The projected Medicare liability was $46 trillion according to Paul O'Neill in the early years of the Bush administration (I'll need to find that link).  Bill also did zip to fund the military (of course, Bush made it worse by stretching it too thin), and started the relentless assault on civil rights that has continued unabated under Bush.  I've lived under national health care.  It's a disaster.  Sure, it's cheaper, but most Brits in the know supplement it with private insurance.
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Of course, the bigger story again is that the Democrats are outpolling the Republicans, this time by about 50%.  Hillary may have just clinched the whole deal today.  The lead is narrowing somewhat, but I suspect Obama will quickly fade to the background while the Democrats rally around Clinton to prevent more infighting.  2008 is theirs to lose, and they don't want a repeat of 2004.

I'm a bit surprised the press was so quick to call the race for McCain, but has yet to declare Clinton the winner.  Do they know something we don't?  I wonder what precincts remain uncounted?  That lead has held reasonably steady for some time now.
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let's hope not - let's hope that Hillary isn't our way out of the nightmare that is B.U.S.H.

This is painful.
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CD, I think Hillary just got elected President tonight, better or worse.  
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She changed her name to suite the Clinton the first campaign, she started wearing girly business suits after alienating stay at home mother's in her famous cookie statement made at I believe - the buzzy bee in Wicker Park. She reminds me of Mayor Young in Detroit - the man who signed a permanent death warrant on the city after 30 years as mayor.

Hillary ROHDAM - as she was known prior to the CIinton 1 campaign - is too smart to play victim or sap. She know exactly how she comes across.

No pity parties will be thrown for Hillary by me - she polarizes the country as much as George Bush.

She will perpetuate the great divide that is our country right now.
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No - I don't know that she'll win. Depends on McCain. I don't know that Romney is strong enough to take out McCain - likely - but, she won't win against McCain. Yes. She will win against Romney.


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4% lead with 46% in.  Hillary did even better than she thought.  Obama's only chance tonight is that the remaining 54% of the precincts are from college towns.  Regardless, Hillary will finish a LOT better than all the pundits predicted yesterday, and even her own campaign braced the electorate for today.  She's a cunning politician, which this country likes.  It's pretty safe to say she's already making plans for her inauguration while keeping the  public face of a fighter.
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CD, are you saying what you THINK will happen, or what you WANT to happen?  I'm giving my predictions of what will happen, not (necessarily) what I want to happen.  Bloomberg is the wild card.
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Or a crier. The public face of a crier - I suppose that is one way to fight.
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I'll leave the commentary to the Boards for now.  I'm on my way home.  More when I get back (by which time I think the media will finally get around to calling this race).
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Bloomberg is a wild card. I speak my thoughts and my hopes - haven't ever liked Hillary. Risk analysis is not my strong suit. Possibly. Then again - I could be wrong.

If this becomes a same old same old election- it will be a sad day. So, today, I suppose I am speaking my heart and mind based on watching her in the past. I don't appreciate her playing the vote for me because I'm a woman card either.

Oh, and McCain has always been a moderate rebel of sorts -

I don't know. I don't know.

Talk to ya'

I will regain my emotional distance after tonight - possibly.

She's no fool - so she shouldn't play one on TV. She's no victim - so she shouldn't play one on TV. I'm tired of being manipulated by the George and Hillary's at the top.





Edited by conundrum - 08/January/2008 at 9:04pm
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hmm.
this media stuff drives me nuts. 21% of vote in and they call the republican race. a few minutes ago, mccain was ahead by 4% and 4,000 votes. big deal.
and clinton leading obama by 2-3 points all night - 2,500 votes. stop the madness!
 
lalalalalalala, i'm not listening:)  jumped up idiots.
 
 
 
 
 
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